Forecasts are only useful when they change a decision.

From demand forecasts to procurement decisions

A 30-month Priory Direct / University of Kent KTP, designing and delivering a six-horizon forecasting and inventory/procurement system for a changing catalogue of approximately 1,200 SKUs.

Using forecast demand to improve delivery decisions

Doctoral research on attended home delivery for online grocery, where forecasts of orders still to come are used to decide which delivery slots to offer, what to charge for them and how to route the vans. Published in the European Journal of Operational Research and Annals of Operations Research.

VN2 Inventory Planning Challenge: 6th place

VN2 was the first public inventory-planning competition. Over six consecutive weekly rounds, participants placed orders for 599 product–store combinations with a two-week lead time, scored on holding and shortage cost. I finished sixth of 180+ participants; the organiser reports that only 25 entries beat his benchmark of a seasonally weighted moving average with a fixed stock target.

Unlike the industry work, the competition data and scoring are public, so the result is independent evidence that I can turn forecasts into ordering decisions under asymmetric holding and shortage costs.